Tourism is growing, yet hotels have lost nearly 9,000 guest nights in a single year. The case of Porto San Giorgio, Italy, highlights a challenge facing many established hospitality destinations: rising visitor numbers do not necessarily translate into stronger hotel profitability or higher real estate values. An in-depth analysis of market trends, investment risks, asset valuations and value-creation strategies.
The Porto San Giorgio Paradox: More Tourists, Fewer Hotel Guest Nights
A tourism destination can experience growing visitor demand while its traditional hotel sector loses market share.
This is precisely the situation emerging in Porto San Giorgio, a coastal destination in Italy's Marche region, according to tourism statistics examined by Cronache Fermane in an article published on November 2, 2026.
In 2025, the destination recorded 188,789 guest nights, compared with 181,826 in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 3.8%.
At first glance, these figures suggest a healthy and expanding tourism market.
A closer examination, however, reveals a substantial shift in the composition of accommodation demand.
Hotel guest nights declined from 130,656 to 121,743, a decrease of 6.8%.
Meanwhile, non-hotel accommodation—including bed and breakfasts, holiday rentals and other registered accommodation categories—recorded an increase from 51,170 to 67,046 guest nights, equivalent to growth of approximately 31%.
Porto San Giorgio Tourism Performance: 2024 vs. 2025
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total guest nights | 181,826 | 188,789 | +3.8% |
| Hotel guest nights | 130,656 | 121,743 | -6.8% |
| Non-hotel guest nights | 51,170 | 67,046 | +31.0% |
| Hotel arrivals | 42,938 | 42,163 | -1.8% |
| Non-hotel arrivals | 9,524 | 12,289 | +29.0% |
| Hotels' share of total guest nights | 71.9% | 64.5% | -7.4 percentage points |
Source: Cronache Fermane, November 2, 2026. Calculations by Investimenti Alberghieri. The 2024 hotel figures are derived from the published totals.
The most significant finding is not simply the loss of 8,913 hotel guest nights.
It is the reduction in hotels' share of total recorded accommodation demand, from 71.9% to 64.5% in just twelve months.
The overall market is expanding, but its underlying composition is changing.
For hotel owners, real estate investors, lenders and institutional capital providers, this raises a fundamental question:
If tourism demand is increasing while hotel guest nights are declining, what are the implications for operating profitability, investment returns and hotel asset valuations?
Answering this question requires moving beyond headline tourism statistics to examine the relationship between market demand, operating performance and invested capital.
Are B&Bs and Holiday Rentals Really Taking Guests Away from Hotels?
The rapid expansion of non-hotel accommodation is frequently identified as a primary reason for the difficulties experienced by traditional hotels.
However, such a conclusion cannot be established from aggregate tourism data alone.
The simultaneous increase in holiday rentals and decline in hotel guest nights does not necessarily prove that the same customers have switched directly from one accommodation category to another.
Several factors may be influencing the market.
First, it is essential to establish whether the number of available hotel rooms and operating days remained constant.
Temporary closures, permanent exits from the market, refurbishment programmes or shorter seasonal opening periods can reduce recorded guest nights even when underlying demand remains stable.
Second, the competitive positioning of different accommodation products must be considered.
Holiday apartments may attract families, groups and guests seeking independent accommodation, while hotels may target different demand segments with distinct service expectations.
Price comparisons must also account for unit size, included services, occupancy per unit and total accommodation costs.
A further consideration is the statistical measurement of the market itself.
The Marche Regional Tourism Plan 2026–2028 acknowledges that the increase in registered tourist apartments has been partly influenced by the introduction of regional and national identification codes—CIR and CIN—which have brought previously unrecorded accommodation units into the official statistics.
Consequently, not all recorded growth in non-hotel accommodation necessarily represents newly created capacity or demand transferred away from hotels.
For investors, the central issue is therefore not whether short-term rentals are directly responsible for declining hotel performance.
The more important question is whether an individual hotel still operates a competitive, financially sustainable business model within an evolving accommodation market.
A Second Warning Signal: Hotel Guests Are Staying for Shorter Periods
The distinction between arrivals and guest nights provides further insight into Porto San Giorgio's tourism performance.
In 2024, hotels recorded an average length of stay of approximately 3.04 nights.
By 2025, this had fallen to approximately 2.89 nights.
The reduction amounts to around 5%.
Over the same period, the average length of stay in non-hotel accommodation increased from approximately 5.37 to 5.46 nights.
Two different patterns are therefore emerging.
Hotels are recording shorter average stays, while non-hotel accommodation continues to attract guests staying substantially longer.
These figures do not establish the underlying causes, but they raise important operational questions.
Shorter hotel stays may increase the frequency of arrivals, departures, housekeeping operations and room preparation relative to the number of guest nights sold.
This can affect unit operating costs and labour productivity.
However, average length of stay must never be considered in isolation.
A hotel accommodating short-stay guests at premium room rates, with efficient cost control, may generate substantially higher profitability than a property relying on longer stays at heavily discounted rates.
The financial implications can only be properly understood through an integrated analysis of revenue, operating costs and margins.
A Critical Distinction: 8,913 Lost Guest Nights Do Not Equal 8,913 Unsold Room Nights
One of the most common methodological errors in hotel market analysis is the confusion between guest nights and room nights.
Official tourism statistics generally record guest nights as the number of nights spent by individual guests.
Hotel room revenue, by contrast, depends on the number of rooms actually sold and the rates achieved.
These are different measures.
Converting a reduction in guest nights into a credible estimate of lost room revenue would require additional information, including:
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Average occupancy per room.
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The number of rooms actually available during the reporting period.
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Average Daily Rate (ADR) and changes in achieved pricing.
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The distribution of guest nights across properties and room categories.
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The number of operating days.
Without these variables, assigning a specific revenue loss to the 8,913 missing guest nights would be methodologically unsound.
Furthermore, fewer guest nights do not necessarily translate into lower revenue.
An increase in ADR could partially or fully offset a decline in occupied rooms.
Similarly, a hotel may report growing revenue while simultaneously experiencing deteriorating operating margins.
The defining issue is not how many tourists visit a destination, but how much sustainable economic value its accommodation businesses can generate and retain.
From Tourism Demand to Hotel Value: The Financial Indicators That Matter
Assessing a hotel investment requires a clear understanding of the relationship between demand, operating revenue, costs, capital expenditure and cash flow.
The first essential indicator is Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR).
RevPAR measures room revenue generated per available room and combines occupancy performance with pricing.
RevPAR = ADR × Occupancy Rate
The second is Gross Operating Profit (GOP), which measures a hotel's operating profitability according to the accounting framework adopted.
GOP provides an important indication of operating efficiency, but it should not be confused with cash flow available to the property owner or investor.
Further adjustments may be required for owner-level expenses, relevant non-operating costs, taxation, recurring capital expenditure, working capital requirements and contractual arrangements.
The third critical consideration is Capital Expenditure (CAPEX).
CAPEX represents the investment required to preserve, maintain or improve the asset's competitive positioning.
For seasonal hotels, capital expenditure is particularly important.
A property may require substantial investment in guest rooms, building systems, energy efficiency, public areas and services while operating within a relatively short revenue-generating season.
The hotel must therefore generate sufficient cash flow not only to cover operating costs, but also to support the capital required to remain competitive.
Ultimately, hotel value is driven by the ability to produce sustainable future cash flows, taking into account the risks and capital intensity of the operating model.
This principle underpins the financial assessments, feasibility studies and hotel investment evaluations developed by Investimenti Alberghieri.
How Much Value Could a Hotel Lose? Three Financial Scenarios
To illustrate the potential consequences of weaker hotel demand, consider a hypothetical seasonal hotel.
The following model is intended solely as a financial sensitivity analysis. It does not represent an appraisal of any existing property in Porto San Giorgio.
Baseline Operating Assumptions
| Variable | Assumption |
|---|---|
| Number of rooms | 45 |
| Annual operating days | 220 |
| Available room nights | 9,900 |
| Average Daily Rate | €120 |
| Baseline occupancy | 65% |
| Baseline annual room revenue | €772,200 |
For this illustration, assume that 40% of the change in room revenue flows through to stabilised, unlevered cash flow after the relevant operating costs and recurring capital provisions assumed in the model.
This 40% conversion factor is an illustrative assumption, not an observed industry benchmark.
A constant capitalisation rate of 9% is then applied to the recurring change in cash flow.
The rate is also hypothetical and should not be interpreted as a market-derived valuation yield.
Scenario 1: Competitive Recovery
The property successfully improves its competitive positioning, increasing occupancy from 65% to 68%, while ADR remains unchanged.
The resulting increase in annual room revenue would be €35,640.
Under the assumed cash-flow conversion factor, incremental annual cash flow would amount to €14,256.
Capitalising this recurring increase at 9% produces a theoretical value uplift of approximately €158,400.
Scenario 2: Moderate Demand Erosion
Occupancy falls from 65% to 62%.
Annual room revenue would decline by €35,640.
Using the same assumptions, the reduction in annual cash flow would amount to €14,256.
The resulting theoretical value impact would be approximately -€158,400.
Scenario 3: Structural Operating Deterioration
Occupancy declines from 65% to 58%, without any offsetting increase in ADR.
Annual room revenue would fall by €83,160.
The implied reduction in stabilised annual cash flow would be €33,264.
At the assumed 9% capitalisation rate, the theoretical reduction in value would reach approximately €369,600.
Financial Sensitivity Analysis
| Scenario | Occupancy | Change in Annual Room Revenue | Theoretical Value Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Competitive recovery | 68% | +€35,640 | +€158,400 |
| Baseline | 65% | — | — |
| Moderate erosion | 62% | -€35,640 | -€158,400 |
| Structural deterioration | 58% | -€83,160 | -€369,600 |
Source: Original Investimenti Alberghieri financial illustration. Figures are rounded. Assumptions include constant ADR, a 40% cash-flow conversion factor, a 9% capitalisation rate and stabilised cash flows. The figures are not valuations of existing properties.
The model illustrates the sensitivity of the economic value of a going-concern hotel operation.
It does not automatically measure the value of the real estate asset alone, which would require a separate assessment of ownership arrangements, contractual structures and the cash flows attributable specifically to the property.
A professional investment valuation would also require a multi-year discounted cash-flow analysis, appropriate CAPEX assumptions, a terminal value, asset-specific risk adjustments and an assessment of potential changes in room pricing.
Nevertheless, the underlying financial principle is clear.
Even a relatively modest deterioration in operating performance can produce a material loss of economic value when the reduction in cash flow is structural rather than temporary.
The value impact does not necessarily arise when guest nights first decline.
It emerges when the market's reasonable expectations of sustainable future earnings and cash flow deteriorate.
The Marche Region: Tourism Growth Is Reshaping Accommodation Demand
The developments observed in Porto San Giorgio form part of a broader regional transformation.
According to the Marche Regional Tourism Plan 2026–2028, provisional figures for 2025 indicated more than 2.9 million tourist arrivals and over 11.9 million guest nights across the region.
Compared with the consolidated 2024 figures, the plan reported growth of 6.9% in arrivals and 4.4% in guest nights.
The regional authorities also highlighted changes in the composition of accommodation supply, including the expansion of non-hotel accommodation and registered tourist apartments.
The trend is therefore not confined to a single coastal destination.
It reflects a structural change that may influence the relationship between tourism demand and the real estate capital allocated to hospitality.
For hotel investors, this has two important implications.
First, investment decisions should be based on the demand realistically accessible to the specific hotel product being acquired, developed or repositioned.
Overall destination growth is not, by itself, a sufficient foundation for an investment business plan.
Second, the evolution of the hotel product becomes increasingly important.
A property designed for an earlier generation of travellers, and operating with an outdated commercial or service model, may gradually lose competitiveness even in an expanding tourism market.
This does not necessarily mean that such a property has ceased to be an attractive investment.
On the contrary, underperforming hotels may create acquisition and value-add opportunities for investors capable of improving management, upgrading the product and implementing a sustainable capital structure.
Hotel Refurbishment: The Real Question Is the Return on CAPEX
In established tourism destinations, parts of the hotel stock may exhibit a significant gap between the existing product and contemporary guest expectations.
Outdated rooms, inefficient building systems, limited service differentiation and poorly optimised distribution strategies can weaken a hotel's competitive position.
The most obvious response may be refurbishment.
However, not every refurbishment creates value.
Consider a hotel requiring €1.5 million of capital expenditure.
The investment would be economically justified only if the additional future cash flows, appropriately adjusted for risk and timing, were sufficient to generate an acceptable return on the capital committed.
New guest rooms or a higher target ADR are not, in themselves, evidence of investment viability.
The market must be capable of supporting the projected room rates.
Expected occupancy must be realistic.
Incremental revenue must be sufficient to cover additional operating costs, future reinvestment requirements and the relevant cost of capital.
A sound refurbishment strategy should therefore begin with a feasibility assessment based on alternative financial scenarios.
Through Investhotel, hotel development and asset enhancement opportunities can be assessed against their underlying financial viability before substantial capital commitments are made.
Sell, Refurbish or Change the Operating Model?
For hotel owners experiencing declining demand or deteriorating profitability, several strategic options may be available.
The first is operational restructuring.
Improvements in revenue management, distribution, cost control and organisational efficiency may restore profitability without requiring extensive real estate investment.
The hospitality advisory, corporate restructuring and governance services provided through Roberto Necci and the operational expertise of Hotel Management Group address these challenges.
A second option is commercial repositioning.
A hotel may need to reconsider its target segments, develop new source markets, reduce excessive dependency on third-party booking channels and strengthen direct distribution.
In this context, the digital performance and distribution capabilities of Hotel Marketing Lab should be aligned with measurable financial outcomes rather than marketing metrics alone.
The third alternative is property refurbishment, provided the proposed investment is supported by a credible business plan and an appropriate expected return.
A fourth possibility is restructuring the contractual or operational model.
Depending on the circumstances, alternatives may include property leasing arrangements, business leases or hotel management agreements.
Each structure should be assessed according to the allocation of commercial risk, operating responsibilities, capital expenditure obligations and economic returns.
Successful operational change may also require new leadership capabilities.
Specialist executive recruitment through Vertex Executive Search can therefore form part of a broader hotel turnaround or repositioning strategy.
Finally, where continued hotel use no longer appears economically viable, owners may consider asset disposal or potential conversion to an alternative use.
Such decisions require detailed urban planning, land-use, licensing, regulatory and financial assessments.
Converting a hotel into residential apartments is not automatically the most profitable alternative.
A hotel with a strong location, distinctive characteristics or unrealised commercial potential may generate greater long-term value through professional repositioning and management.
The appropriate decision is the one that maximises sustainable net investment value—not necessarily the option associated with the highest apparent disposal price.
Why Hotel Valuations Cannot Rely on Real Estate Prices Alone
Growing interest in tourism-related property investments can encourage owners and investors to rely on valuation metrics that do not fully reflect the economic characteristics of hotel operations.
Price per square metre, value per room and comparable real estate transactions can provide useful reference points.
However, these measures are insufficient on their own.
An operating hotel is an integrated economic system involving real estate, business operations, contracts, employees, services and commercial positioning.
A robust assessment must distinguish between three separate concepts.
Real Estate Asset Value
This concerns the property itself and the sustainable economic benefits attributable to ownership.
Relevant considerations include location, physical characteristics, permitted use, legal restrictions, contractual arrangements and property-level cash flows.
Hotel Business Value
This relates to the hotel's capacity to generate operating earnings and cash flow, taking into account its organisational structure, contractual relationships, competitive position and future prospects.
Investment Value to a Specific Investor
This reflects the acquisition price, additional capital requirements, financing arrangements, potential synergies and the investor's required rate of return.
These measures do not necessarily produce the same result.
A hotel owner may hold a valuable property while operating a financially underperforming business.
Conversely, a specialist investor may identify an attractive opportunity in an underperforming hotel where operational improvements can realistically unlock additional value.
However, the mere existence of turnaround potential does not justify paying a purchase price that already assumes the full achievement of results that remain uncertain.
Expected investment returns must compensate investors for the execution risk involved in delivering the business plan.
Hotel Due Diligence: Seven Essential Checks Before Investing
The Porto San Giorgio case offers a useful framework for assessing hotel investments in other Italian destinations.
1. Analyse Underlying Demand
Review at least five years of arrivals, guest nights, seasonality, source markets and customer segmentation.
Identify changes in the composition of demand rather than relying solely on headline tourism growth.
2. Assess Accommodation Supply
Examine changes in the number of properties, available rooms, bed capacity and actual operating days.
Distinguish demand-related performance changes from fluctuations in available supply.
3. Benchmark Commercial Performance
Assess ADR, occupancy, RevPAR, online reputation, market positioning and distribution channels against a genuinely comparable competitive set.
4. Normalise Operating Profitability
Reconstruct historical GOP, adjust for exceptional or non-recurring items and identify the sustainable cost structure required to maintain service quality.
5. Evaluate CAPEX and Regulatory Compliance
Assess deferred maintenance, building systems, health and safety requirements, permits, restrictions and the capital investment necessary to maintain or improve the product.
6. Test Financial Sustainability
Prepare business plans incorporating downside scenarios, cash-flow projections, Debt Service Coverage Ratios (DSCR) and debt repayment capacity.
7. Compare Alternative Value-Creation Strategies
Evaluate continued operation, third-party management, repositioning, refurbishment, disposal and potentially viable alternative uses.
These checks help distinguish temporary market weakness from structural competitive decline.
More importantly, they allow investors to determine whether the capital required is proportionate to the cash flows that can reasonably be achieved.
Hotel Owners: When Should an Asset Valuation Be Reassessed?
A reassessment of hotel value becomes particularly important when a property begins to exhibit persistent declines in RevPAR, compression of GOP margins or operating cost inflation that cannot be offset through pricing.
Other warning signs include substantial future CAPEX requirements, the expiry of management or lease agreements, debt refinancing, shareholder changes and preparations for a potential disposal.
In these circumstances, a valuation focused solely on the physical real estate may fail to capture the actual economic sustainability of the investment.
Investimenti Alberghieri provides confidential financial assessments designed to examine operating profitability, investment value and potential asset enhancement strategies.
For a hotel valuation, investment feasibility study or confidential financial assessment, contact: info@investimentialberghieri.it
Conclusion: A Destination Can Attract More Tourists While Its Hotels Generate Less Economic Value
Porto San Giorgio provides a compelling example of changing accommodation demand.
Overall tourism activity is expanding, while hotel guest nights are declining and non-hotel accommodation is gaining market share.
The available statistics do not establish that the local hotel sector has already experienced a widespread decline in asset values.
Such a conclusion would require additional evidence concerning operating performance, transaction prices, profitability, accommodation capacity and investment requirements.
However, the observed trends warrant serious attention.
If changes in the composition of demand translate into a lasting deterioration in hotel cash flows, the consequences may extend beyond day-to-day operations to property valuations, financing capacity and investment sustainability.
The central question is not whether hotels should prevail over alternative accommodation.
Hospitality markets are becoming increasingly diverse, with different products serving different customer needs.
What matters is whether hotel businesses can adapt their operating models, cost structures and investment strategies to changing demand.
Well-positioned, professionally managed and appropriately capitalised hotels can continue to generate attractive returns.
Properties that cannot support their operating costs or fund the investment required to remain competitive may face increasing financial vulnerability.
A hotel does not lose value simply because B&Bs and holiday rentals are expanding. It risks losing value when its sustainable cash flows are no longer sufficient to justify the capital employed and the risks assumed.
Before deciding whether to acquire, refurbish, change management or dispose of a hotel, investors and owners need a clear understanding of its sustainable economic value.
The quality of that assessment is what distinguishes a disciplined investment decision from a property strategy based on untested assumptions.
Hotel Investment Advisory, Valuations and Feasibility Studies
Investimenti Alberghieri – Financial Analysis, Hotel Investment Feasibility and Hospitality Asset Value Creation
We support hotel owners, investors, real estate companies, lenders and professional hospitality operators in evaluating hotel assets and investment opportunities.
Our advisory services include:
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Hotel business and real estate valuations.
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Operating profitability and financial sustainability assessments.
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Acquisition and refurbishment feasibility studies.
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Financial, operational and strategic due diligence.
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CAPEX analysis and investment requirements.
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Business planning and alternative asset enhancement scenarios.
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Preliminary assessments supporting acquisition, management, refinancing and disposal decisions.
Our objective is to identify sustainable investment value and support decisions based on robust financial analysis, realistic operating assumptions and measurable investment returns.
Request a Confidential Hotel Investment Assessment
Email: info@investimentialberghieri.it
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Sources and Methodology
Primary News Source
Sandro Renzi, Turismo, exploit di B&B e case vacanze a Porto San Giorgio nel 2025. Ma negli hotel 9mila presenze in meno, Cronache Fermane, November 2, 2026.
Official Statistical Source
Regione Marche, Tourism Statistics, annual accommodation capacity, arrivals and guest-night statistics for 2024 and 2025.
https://statistica.regione.marche.it/Marche-in-Numeri/Turismo
Official Regional Planning Source
Regione Marche, Regional Tourism Plan 2026–2028, approved by Administrative Resolution No. 10 of April 28, 2026, and published in Official Bulletin No. 42 on May 7, 2026.
https://bur.regione.marche.it/bur/PDF/2026/N42%20del%207%20maggio%202026.pdf
Methodological Note: The municipal tourism figures used in this analysis are based on the data reported by the primary news source for 2024 and 2025. Derived indicators are original calculations. Regional tourism figures contained in the Regional Tourism Plan were provisional at the time of publication. Financial scenarios are illustrative sensitivity analyses and do not constitute valuations, appraisals or investment recommendations concerning specific hotel properties.
